The EIA expects fuel prices to ease in 2023, though it raised its expectations by 15 cents for retail gasoline prices to $3.66/gal and by 8 cents for diesel to $4.14/gal in 2023. The EIA forecast third quarter refinery utilization to average 94% and asserted that such high utilization would "help bring wholesale margins down from record levels." The agency does not see total refinery output of oil products reaching a five-year high, because operable refining capacity in the US is about 900,000 b/d lower than at the end of 2019. High wholesale products margins are seen putting US refinery utilization at or near its highest levels in the past five years, the EIA said. But it forecast gasoline wholesale margins - the price difference between wholesale gasoline and Brent crude - to fall 36 cents to an average 81 cents/gal over May and the third quarter, and diesel wholesale margins to decline 46 cents to $1.07/gal during the same period. The EIA attributed rising gasoline and diesel prices to refining margins at or near record highs amid low inventory levels.
The agency put retail diesel prices at an average $4.69/gal over the same period, down 3 cents from May. The EIA forecast retail gasoline prices in 2022 to average $4.07/gal, up 25 cents from its prior estimate in May. High oil prices are continuing to cause pain at the pump for US drivers. "The possibility that these sanctions or other potential future sanctions reduce Russia's oil production by more than expected creates upward risks for crude oil prices during the forecast period," the agency said. The agency said that its forecast, finalized June 2, did not incorporate restrictions on shipping insurance as those details were not available at the time. Those estimates assume the EU's ban on seaborne crude oil from Russia will be imposed in six months and the region's import ban on petroleum products will go into effect in eight months. The EIA forecast Russia's total liquid fuels production to fall to 9.3 million b/d by end-2023, from 11.3 million b/d at the start of 2022. "Actual price outcomes will largely depend on the degree to which existing sanctions imposed on Russia, any potential future sanctions, and independent corporate actions affect Russia's oil production or the sale of Russia's oil in the global market," the agency said in its report. "Although we expect the current upward pressure on energy prices to lessen, high energy prices will likely remain prevalent in the US this year and next."Īlready-high crude oil prices rose further as Shanghai and Beijing began easing COVID-19 restrictions end-May and the EU announced plans to cut its Russian oil imports by 90% by the year's end. "We continue to see historically high energy prices as a result of the economic recovery and the repercussions of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine," EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said in a statement.
The EIA expects WTI at $93.24/b in 2023 and sees Brent at $97.24/b, both unchanged from the prior month. The EIA in its June Short-Term Energy Outlook now sees WTI averaging $102.47/b in 2022, up $4.27/b from its prior estimate in May and expects Brent to average $107.37/b in 2022, up $4.02/b from the prior month. Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience.
0 kommentar(er)
